Lens vs Arsenal: Prediction and Preview

Arsenal fans have endured six long years without UEFA Champions League football, but their Matchday 1 performance was well worth the wait, as they destroyed PSV Eindhoven 4-0 at the Emirates Stadium. The Gunners will play Lens at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis, the site of their first-ever game in Europe’s top club competition.InformationGuideNigeria

Arsène Wenger’s team settled for a 1-1 draw in northern France in September 1998, with Marc Overmars’ opening cancelled out by Tony Vairelles’ last-minute equaliser. When Arsenal returns to Lens 25 years and 17 days later, they will be heavy favourites after a scorching start to their first Champions League campaign under Mikel Arteta.

PSV had no answer a fortnight ago when Arsenal ran riot, with Bukayo Saka, Leandro Trossard, Gabriel Jesus, and Martin degaard all scoring in their debut Champions League game for the club. Only two players have previously scored in their first two Champions League appearances for Arsenal: Marouane Chamakh in 2010 (first three) and Lukas Podolski in 2012.

Jesus, in particular, is eager to extend his winning streak in this competition, having been involved in 15 goals in his past 15 Champions League appearances for Arsenal and former side Manchester City, scoring 12 and assisting three. He’s also scored in his last three Champions League group stage games.NYSC Portal

Arsenal warmed up for Tuesday’s encounter by beating Bournemouth 4-0. Saka and degaard were joined on the scoreboard by Kai Havertz and Ben White. Despite that rout, Arsenal has only scored five open-play goals in seven Premier League games, a total surpassed by ten teams.

However, something about continental competition appears to bring out the best in Arsenal’s frontline. They scored four times from 2.3 expected goals (xG) against PSV, with a positive differential of 1.7 only surpassed by Barcelona (five goals from 2.9 xG vs Royal Antwerp) on MD 1.JAMB Result

Arsenal’s injury woes are beginning to lighten, albeit Gabriel Martinelli has not played since suffering a hamstring injury in their win against Everton. Eddie Nketiah may get another chance to impress because of his fitness difficulties, while Thomas Partey and long-term absentee Jurrin Timber are still sidelined.

Lens, on the other hand, will enter the game in a positive frame of mind after experiencing a recent uptick. After finishing second in Ligue 1 previous season, they began 2023-24 with one point from five games, their poorest start in 62 seasons in the top level. However, Franck Haise’s club has now won back-to-back league games, defeating Strasbourg 1-0 on Friday thanks to Elye Wahi’s goal.

Prior to those victories, Lens opened their first Champions League season since 2002-03 with a 1-1 draw at Sevilla. They got off to a shaky start, with four players booked in the first half – Angelo Fulgini, Brice Samba, Facundo Medina, and Florian Sotoca – the most cautions received by a side in the opening 45 minutes of a Champions League game since November 2016 (Dynamo Kyiv, four vs Benfica).

However, Lens regained their calm to leave southern Spain with a vital point as Fulgini’s magnificent free-kick cancelled out Lucas Ocampos’ early header.

Wahi, who scored 19 goals for Montpellier in Ligue 1 last season and was our player to watch in Group B, shone against the UEFA Europa League holders, with no one bettering his three shots tried following a carry across MD 1. In Lens team news, Wahi will lead the line on Tuesday, while David Costa could return from a shoulder injury.

Lens vs. Arsenal Head-to-Head
Lens are unbeaten in their two previous Champions League matches with Arsenal, with a 1-1 home draw and a 1-0 away win in Group E in 1998-99. That season, neither team made it to the knockout stages.JAMB Portal

However, the teams last met in the semi-finals of the renamed UEFA Cup in 1999-00. Arsenal won the match 3-1 on aggregate, but lost the final on penalties to Galatasaray.

In general, Arsenal has a strong record in France, having only lost one of their previous 14 road games against French teams (eight wins, five draws). In March 2019, the team was defeated by Rennes (3-1) in the Europa League.

The Gunners are unbeaten in eight Champions League visits (six wins, two draws), albeit they lost the 2006 final in Paris against Barcelona at the Stade de France.

Recent Form
Arsenal have won their last four away games, holding clean sheets against Bournemouth, Everton, and Crystal Palace in the Premier League and Brentford in the League Cup. Their only points this season have come from home draws with Fulham and Tottenham.

Meanwhile, the Gunners remain unbeaten in their previous nine Champions League group stage games, winning seven and drawing two.

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Only between November 2003 and September 2006 did they go unbeaten in 17 consecutive group games.

Lens, on the other hand, will be hoping to wow their own fans. In their last two Champions League campaigns, 1998-99 and 2002-03, they only lost one of six home matches (three victories, two draws).

They also have a tremendous scoring streak in continental home games, having scored at least once in each of their last 33 European home games (78 goals in all). No team in the twenty-first century has played as many UEFA competition home games as they have without scoring.

Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that allocates an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale of zero to 100, with zero being the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 being the best team in the world.

Here are the Opta Power Rankings for both teams ahead of kickoff in this UCL game:

Lens vs Arsenal Prediction
Despite Lens’ good record in northern France, the Opta supercomputer predicts Arsenal to make it six points from two games on Tuesday.

The Gunners won 59% of the 10,000 match simulations conducted prior to kickoff. Lens are given a 19% chance of winning, with a 22% chance of a draw.

Arsenal leads Group B in 84.53% of the supercomputer’s Champions League predictions. Only Bayern Munich (85.57%) is regarded as a more likely group winner.

Lens are assigned a 34.48% chance of reaching the last 16, making them more likely than Sevilla (21.46%), but less likely than PSV (47.85%).

Bayern Munich vs Manchester United UCL Squads

Lens: Jean-Louis Leca, Brice Samba, Roman Karolewicz, Yannick Pandor, Ruben Aguilar, Deiver Machado, Kevin Danso, Facundo Medina, Faitout Maouassa, Massadio Haïdara, Jonathan Gradit, Abdukodir Khusanov, Przemysław Frankowski, Ismaëlo Ganiou, Kenny M’Bala, Wesley Gbalou Zahibo, Souleymane Sagnan, Oscar Lenne, Ryan George, Kaïs Benabdelouahed, Mattéo Escouflaire, Marceau Apperry, Salis Abdul Samed, David Costa, Andy Diouf, Neil El Aynaoui, Nampalys Mendy, Adrien Thomasson, Fode Sylla, Anthony Bermot, Tom Pouilly, Mathéssendé Baud-Banaga, Florian Dewaele, Grégoire Herbin, Florian Sotoca, Elye Wahi, Angelo Fulgini, Wesley Said, Morgan Guilavogui, Ayanda Sishuba, Nolan Bonté, Sean Tormin.

Head Coach: Franck Haise

Arsenal: Aaron Ramsdale, David Raya, James Hillson, William Saliba, Ben White, Gabriel Magalhães, Jakub Kiwior, Cédric Soares, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Lino Sousa, Thomas Partey, Martin Ødegaard, Leandro Trossard, Jorginho, Fábio Vieira, Mohamed Elneny, Kai Havertz, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, Emile Smith Rowe, Gabriel Martinelli, Eddie Nketiah, Reiss Nelson.

Head Coach: Mikel Arteta

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